August 26, 2008

Boyce Thompson: Boyce on Building

Obama on Housing

It’s been a while since housing policy figured prominently in a presidential debate. This time around both candidates, Senators Barak Obama (D-Ill.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.), have stated positions on a wide range of issues that affect home builders, their buyers, and lenders. With the Democratic Convention dominating the airwaves for the next few nights, let’s take a look at what an Obama administration might try to accomplish. Read more...

 
 
August 19, 2008

Boyce Thompson: Boyce on Building

Uncertain Times

It’s getting difficult to remember all the “significant” events in this historic housing downturn, which is entering its fourth year. But it was about this time last year that we had the subprime meltdown, and mortgage products that had been responsible for 35 to 40 percent of 2006 production (mostly subprime and alt-A mortgages) the year before disappeared. Maybe it was pure coincidence, but the numbers for single family starts came out today and they are down 39 percent in one year. Read more...

 
 
August 12, 2008

Boyce Thompson: Boyce on Building

Move ‘em on Out!

We faithfully bring you all the home building news every day on Builderonline—reports on new home sales, mortgage interest rates, consumer sentiment, you name it. But sometimes it seems as though many of these reports are irrelevant. Unsold inventory is the one metric that really bears watching. Virtually every housing economist believes that working down unsold inventory levels is the key to turning the industry around. Unfortunately, like the airline pilot who gets you to the gate 15 minutes early, only to find another airplane there, I have good news and bad news to report. First, the home building industry has done a great job in recent months working down unsold inventory. We now have only about 426,000 unsold units throughout the country, and in some markets, speculative inventory is so low, it’s laughable. Read more...

 
 
August 05, 2008

Boyce Thompson: Boyce on Building

True Colors

For about forty years, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been at a masquerade ball, pretending to be free-standing, American businesses. Now, with one fell swoop, the new housing bill has yanked away their masks, exposing them for what they truly are--government agencies. Read more...

 
 
July 29, 2008

Boyce Thompson: Boyce on Building

Bittersweet Bill

The so-called housing “rescue” bill, passed by Congress and awaiting the President’s signature, delivered a pounding to the housing industry in the first few days after its provisions became clear. Public builder stocks fell by more than 15 percent upon news that the bill would eliminate as of Oct. 1 of this year the down-payment assistance programs widely used by builders. Moreover, lawmakers immediately hedged their bets on the impact that the bill would have on the market. Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.), a chief architect of the bill, noted that its modest relief for at most 400,000 households at risk of foreclosure would merely slow a rising tide of foreclosures. He said that one in eight homes is expected to enter foreclosure over the next five years. Read more...

 
 

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